Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures ended the Friday session with most contracts 2 to 2 3/4 cents higher, with March 1.24% lower on the week. Turkey is seeking 342,000 MT of optional origin corn, with the tender due on January 18. The Chinese Ag Ministry updated their 18/19 corn crop estimate at 257.33 MMT, which is compared to 259.07 MMT last year. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that 86.1% of the Argentine corn crop is planted, slightly below a year ago. Of the crop that is emerged, 51.1% is in gd/ex condition, compared to 29.3% last year. An updated estimate from Safras & Mercado shows Brazil’s 18/19 corn crop at 93.366 MMT, down 1.53 MMT from their prior estimate.

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.78 1/4, up 2 cents,

May 19 Corn closed at $3.86 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents,

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.94 1/4, up 2 cents

Sep 19 Corn closed at $3.97 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures closed the week with 3 to 4 cent gains as yesterday’s sellers took some profits off the table ahead of the weekend. January was down 1.13% this week. Soymeal futures were down $2.20/ton to weigh on the product values, with soy oil up 23 points. Argentina’s soybean crop was reported at 96.1% planted according to BAGE, vs 94.3% in 2018. They show 29.1% of the crop blooming compared to 33.3% last year, with condition ratings 8.6% above a year ago at 48.8% gd/ex. Safras & Mercado slashed their 18/19 Brazilian soybean crop projection by 6.5 MMT to 115.72 MMT. That comes after CONAB trimmed their estimate to 118.8 MMT on Thursday. AgRural pegs the 18/19 Brazil soybean harvest at 2.1% complete, outpacing the 0.4% average. The Chinese Ag ministry left their soybean import projection at 83.65 MMT, down 10.48 MMT from last year on assumed lower use due to ration changes away from soy meal and hog herd losses due to ASF.

Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $8.99 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents,

Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $9.10 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents,

May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.23 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $9.41 1/4, up 4 cents,

Jan 19 Soybean Meal closed at $310.40, down $2.20,

Jan 19 Soybean Oil closed at $28.17, up $0.23

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures saw 5 to 6 cent gains in most nearby contracts on Friday. CBT was up 0.48% on the week, with KC down 0.3% and MPLS 1/4 cent lower since last Friday. Tunisia, Morocco and Jordan are all active in the market after Egypt made their big purchase earlier in the week. DTN reported their HRW cash index at $4.73 on Thursday evening, 93 cents above the same time at year ago. The Argentine wheat crop is 95.6% harvested as reported by BAGE, 0.4% below this time in 2018. Total harvested production has totaled 17.948 MMT. Paris wheat milling futures were up 0.61% on the day.

Mar 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.19 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents,

Mar 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.04 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents,

Mar 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.70, up 6 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures settled Friday with mixed trade, as most contracts were steady to 45 cents higher. Fed cattle futures were 2.5% higher this week. Feeder cattle futures were also mixed on Friday, with contracts 62.5 cents lower to 12.5 cents higher. Jan was up 0.85% on the week. The CME feeder cattle index was down 9 cents on January 10 at $145.46. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Friday afternoon. Choice boxes were $1.50 lower at $212.46, with Select down the same amount at $206.27. USDA estimated WTD FI cattle slaughter at 626,000 head through Saturday. That was 14,000 head above the same week last year. Most of Friday afternoon’s cash trade was around $124, with a few $123 live and $197 dressed sales thrown in the mix.

Feb 19 Cattle closed at $124.975, up $0.100,

Apr 19 Cattle closed at $126.375, up $0.450,

Jun 19 Cattle closed at $117.200, down $0.175,

Jan 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.125, down $0.625

Mar 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.900, down $0.175

Apr 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.750, up $0.075

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures posted 50 cent to $1.425 losses in most contracts on Friday, but Feb was still up 1.13% on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 89 cents from the previous day @ $55.99 on January 9. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 50 cents on Friday afternoon at an average weighted price of $70.96. The national base cash hog carcass value was 20 cents lower in the PM report, with a weighted average of $50.88. This week’s FI hog slaughter through Saturday is estimated at 2.565 million head, which would be 125,000 head larger than the same week last year.

Feb 19 Hogs closed at $62.650, down $1.425,

Apr 19 Hogs closed at $67.350, down $0.500

May 19 Hogs closed at $72.875, down $1.025

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures were 33 to 44 points in most contracts on Friday. The March contract was down just 3 points net in a week that saw a couple large swings. The dollar was slightly higher on the day, with crude lower. Chinese trade reps are expected to come to the US later this month for further discussions on the trade war. The Cotlook A index was up 155 points from the previous day on January 10 at 82.60 cents/lb. There will be no CFTC commitment of Traders report this afternoon, and the Cotton Ginnings update from USDA is also delayed thanks to the shutdown.

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 72.490, down 36 points,

May 19 Cotton closed at 74.030, down 33 points

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 75.270, down 40 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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