AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are trading mostly a penny higher this morning. They closed mostly 2 3/4 to 3 1/4 cents lower on Tuesday. The Monday afternoon USDA Crop Progress report showed most of the Corn Belt with steady to lower crop conditions, but the gainers offset the losers. Most of the Corn Belt states were lagging their respective averages for harvest progress but traders also point to large carryover stocks from last season that serve as a buffer. The weekly EIA Ethanol report will be released this morning at 9:30 a.m. CDT. Stats Canada survey showed corn production for the country up 8.5% from last year at 14.31 MMT. China sold just 5,000 MT of the 231,740 MT of corn offered at their auction of state reserves on Tuesday.

Soybeans

Soybean futures are currently 3 to 4 cent in the green after settling Tuesday trade with most contracts fractionally to 2 1/4 cents lower. Oct soy meal was down $4/ton, with nearby bean oil 33 points higher. The USDA showed Nebraska and most Southern states slightly ahead of their respective averages for harvest as of Sunday. Most of the major soybean producing states were showing lower condition ratings than the previous week. Stats Canada now estimates the country’s canola production at 19.7 MMT for 2017, up just 0.5% from 2016. Canola acreage was a record, but average yield dropped 5 bpa to 38.1 bpa.

Wheat

Wheat futures are mostly 1 to 3 cents higher in the CBT and KC contracts this morning, with MPLS up 1 in the nearby and lower in back months. They were slightly lower in the nearby CBT and KC contracts, with deferred months higher. MPLS was 4 to 5 cents lower in the nearby contracts. Most major winter wheat producing states were steady to lagging averages for planting progress as of Sunday. On Tuesday, a Stats Canada report all wheat production for 2017 in Canada is expected to be 27.1 MMT, down 14.5% from 2016. This is above the September USDA estimate. Durum wheat took the brunt of the year over year hit, down 44.6% o 4.3 MMT, as spring wheat was down slightly on lower yields. Japan is seeking 127,427 MT wheat from the US, Canada, and Australia with 59,902 MT specifically from the US. Egypt’s GASC purchased 175,000 MT of Russian wheat on Tuesday.

Cattle

Live cattle futures showed most contracts 10 to 67.5 cents higher on Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures were up 45 to 92.5 cents in most contracts. The CME feeder cattle index was up 38 cents from the previous day at $150.47 on September 18.Wholesale beef prices were mixed in the Tuesday afternoon report, with the Ch/Se spread narrowing to $3.28. Choice was down 51 cents at $192.11, while select boxes were up $1.13 at $188.83. FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 230,000 through Tuesday, which is 3,000 fewer than last week and 4,000 larger than the same week in 2016. Wednesday’s online FCE auction is showing 1,450 head of cattle for sale.

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures ended the Tuesday session with most contracts steady to $1.675 higher, as a few back months were lower. The CME Lean Hog Index for 9/15 was $1.25 lower than the previous day at $62.82. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $1.97 lower at $76.32 in the Tuesday afternoon report. The picnic was the only cut higher with the belly down $4.12. The national base hog carcass was down $1.05 in the PM report at $51.08. Estimated week to date FI hog slaughter was 906,000 through Tuesday, 5,000 head larger than last week and 27,000 larger than the same week in 2016.

Cotton

Cotton futures are trading 35 to 37 points higher following overnight trade. They finished Tuesday with most contracts 6 to 60 cents in the red. Texas was well ahead of its average pace for cotton harvest, at 18% harvested, pulling the national average higher. Georgia ratings were down a steep 66 points on the Brugler500 scale in the week following Hurricane Irma, dropping to 307. Arkansas, Louisiana and South Carolina were the only other states to report lower conditions. The Cotlook A index for September 18 was down 20 points from the previous day at 78.9 cents/lb. China sold another 26,000 MT of cotton in Tuesday’s auction of state reserves that saw 27,100 MT offered. The Fed is expected to leave interest rates UNCH this afternoon, but to announce a policy on unwinding its long term debt portfolio.


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Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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